The Cubs have never been clutch. Not even an amateur Cubs fan needs to be told that the Cubs have failed to win a World Series in the last century. Most need not be reminded of being five outs away from a World Series berth in 2003. Venturing a guess, none need to be informed about being upset in the first round of the 2007 playoffs, either. Choke jobs like these have been the legacy of the Chicago Cubs organization.
This year, the Cubs have been better than expectations, despite the fact that they're 14 games below .500 going into Friday's series opener against the Saint Louis Cardinals. Players like Nate Schierholtz and Travis Wood have exceeded what was expected, and the Cubs have looked better than their 50-64 record indicates. Their are a number of possible explanations for the Cubs struggles, but a major cause might be sticking with the tradition that the Cubs have become so accustomed to over the years; choking.
In Layman's terms, the Clutch metric is how a player performs in situations of high importance to the team. It involves over performing, having a higher batting average in situations that would give the team an edge. Per FanGraphs, the formula for calculating a player's Clutch rating is:
(WPA/pLI)-WPA/LI
The WPA aspect of the formula is the Win Probability Added, or the contribution of a player to the teams chance of winning on a play by play basis. Scores usually range from 6.0 being the best, to -3.0 being the worst. Baltimore Orioles slugger Chris Davis leads all major leaguers in WPA with a score of 5.83.
LI, or Leverage Index, is a means of gauging pressure of a situation. Lets say that Anthony Rizzo is batting with men on second and third with two outs in the ninth inning and the Cubs down by one. The LI of the situation would be considerably higher in this instance that it would be if Rizzo was batting with the Cubs comfortably ahead (something that is all too rare for the North Siders). LI is out of the hitter's control, and is totally dependent on the situation that the batter is faced with.
The third and final aspect of Clutch rating is WPA/LI, known as Context Neutral Wins. Dividing the Win Probability Added by the Leverage Index makes up for the unpredictable and inevitable disparity in the number of clutch situations a player is faced with. As FanGraphs states, WPA/LI "measures how much value a player added to their team regardless of the leverage. Because of this, it is more a measure of a player's talent level than WPA." The WPA/LI number in essence reflects the wins or losses attributable to clutch play.
Clutch rating can be misleading in some cases, such as that of Mike Trout, who currently owns a horrifically poor rating of -2.26. Clutch rating can vary greatly from year to year, though it can be a good assessment of how a player handles pressure. It is a better measure of how a season is progressing, as opposed to being a career quantifier. Mike Trout has had a short career thus far, though he will almost assuredly bounce back in the clutch rating department.
Now that Clutch rating is defined, take a look at some of the Cubs leaders in the category. Rizzo is the team leader with a rating of .3. On the scale of -2.0 being awful and 2.0 being superb, Rizzo chalks in at just barely above average. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Starlin Castro owns a rating of -.47, deemed below average. Neither of these should be surprising; mostly everyone is aware of Castro's tough season so far, as well as Rizzo's solid, though unspectacular, 2013 season.
Clutch can be attributed not only to players, but to teams, as well. Interestingly enough, the team with the best record is among the least clutch teams in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.07) actually rank one spot below our loveable losers, coming in 27th overall. Take from that what you will, though it is fair to infer that, considering the record of the Pirates despite the poor clutch play, it is a real tribute to the lineup that the Bucs field. The Los Angeles Angels, on the other hand, have both a poor record and the 28th ranked Clutch rating. On paper, they have arguably the most talented team in the sport.
The Pirates may rank 27th overall in Clutch rating, yet they currently rank 12th overall in Win Probability Added. They rank seventh overall in Context Neutral Wins (3.89), as well. Breaking down the Clutch rating metric, it makes sense that they seem to be playoff bound. It also makes sense that the Cubs are where they are.
The Cubs rank 22nd in the league in WPA, currently sitting at -4.91. They sit at -2.20 in Context Neutral Wins, ranking nineteenth in the league. Both numbers are below average, and so they tie in perfectly with where the Cubs sit in the standings.
Is the Cubs' lack of clutch hitting inversely related to their league worst batting average on balls in play (.277)? BABIP is often attributed to luck (either good or bad), but it is also a factor of the contact the team makes. Line drives lead to the most runs by far, followed by fly balls, and then ground balls. The Cubs rank 29th in the league in line drive percentage, whereas they are 2nd overall in fly ball percentage.
A team that hits few line drives won't score a lot of runs; a team that hits a lot of ground balls will have a high number of base hits with few runs; and a team that hits primarily fly balls will be somewhere in between both of those. A decent amount of base hits, with a decent amount of runs. That sums up the Cubs's season thus far. They are a fly ball team, and because of that, do not get an above average amount of hits or runs. This ties directly back into the Clutch rating metric.
All of this rambling means that the Cubs' Clutch rating is an exact representation of the type of team that they are. They may lead the National League in extra base hits, but being a fly ball team, they make life easier for opposing defenses. Fly balls are the easiest for a defense to field, and so a fly ball hitting team will have more trouble scoring runs in big moments.
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