Max Scherzer is Major League Baseball's most talked about pitcher right now. The Tigers' number two starter is having a career year, and just won his 12th consecutive start. He is the first pitcher in 27 years to accomplish that feat, and should definitely receive praise for it; despite analysis from the experts, though, Scherzer might not be the best pitcher in baseball this year. In fact, Scherzer might not even be in the top five. If stats don't lie, sabermetrics should be taken as gospel. Using the formulas of the great Bill James, a back of the rotation starter has actually posted a very similar year to that of Scherzer: Travis Wood of the Chicago Cubs.
Coming into Friday, Wood had pitched five less innings than Scherzer. Wood had allowed four fewer runs (31-35), had a lower earned run average (2.85-3.05), had allowed one less hit (69-70), and earned three more quality starts (14-11). Scherzer blew the doors off Wood in terms of strikeouts (122-69), had a significantly higher K/BB ratio (5.08-2.38), and bested Wood in WHIP (.91-1.00). With the exception of the strikeout-to-walk ratio and strikeout total, all of these numbers are very similar. They do not tell the whole story though.
BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is one of the more controversial categories when measuring a pitcher's efficiency. On one hand, a low BABIP can mean that a pitcher is forcing hitters to swing defensively, hitting weak ground balls and popping up. Alternatively, a low BABIP can mean that a pitcher is getting lucky, succeeding as a result of solid defensive work behind him. Going into Friday, Wood lead the league in BABIP, with an astoundingly low .212. Scherzer coming into Friday was sitting at .240, which is still quite respectable. Seeing the struggles of the Cubs' defense this year, luck might not be the determining factor in Wood's BABIP, though. Since it is such controversial statistic, other metrics must be taken into account.
Component ERA(CERA) is used to take the luck out of pitching. It predicts the ERA of a pitcher based on the number of walks and hits that they allowed, instead of looking at the runs that crossed the plate. Scherzer presides over Wood in this category, but not by a wide margin. Coming into Friday, Scherzer's 1.85 CERA was good enough to rank him fourth in all of baseball. Wood came in eighth, with a 2.08 CERA. A differential of.23 is not a wide margin by any means. CERA is focuses heavily on hits, and therefore can be attributed (at least partially) to the effort level of the defense. If, say, a certain shortstop is staring into the outfield bleachers when a ball goes by, the pitcher will be credited with allowing a base hit.
Where the two begin to separate is when Defensive Independent Pitching (DIPS) is taken into account. This category was actually not one of James', but actually is credited to Voros McCracken. DIPS takes into account only the plays that are strictly controlled by the pitcher; that means home runs, strikeouts, and runs. Scherzer took this category pretty handily, outdoing Wood by a margin of 1.01. Having already determined that Scherzer is more of a strikeout pitcher, it is not a shocking revelation that Scherzer leads in this category. In fact, Wood actually had allowed fewer home runs coming into Friday (8-11), which is surprising considering that Wood pitches in a more hitter-friendly park. Scherzer might be ahead of Wood here, but all things considered, the margin is not as wide as it appears.
The categories go on and on, and endless cases can be made for who is having the better season. Scherzer has the better power finesse ratio, but Wood throws fewer pitches per inning. The point is that nearly every category is close, though. So why is Scherzer getting the notoriety and the segments on ESPN, and Wood is getting the support of amateur bloggers? Is it because of the Tigers' success coupled with Cubs' general incompetence? Why is it that Scherzer is almost guaranteed an All Star spot, and Wood will have several days off?
When voting for the All Star teams, SB Nation recommends/encourages voting for players, independent of their teams. For whatever reason, fans are not allowed to vote for pitchers when it comes to balloting. SB Nation's request is admirable in theory though, and should be applied to media coverage, but more importantly award decisions. Do not hold pitchers accountable for the fiasco that the team behind them might be.
That Wood be a Travis-ty (and that is a God awful pun).
No comments:
Post a Comment