Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Cubs: Theopocalypse

After the recent internal explosion of the Boston Red Sox, every baseball fan across the country knew that changes were on the way. Those changes were to be managerial, starting from the ground up. Hometown-hero Terry (Tito) Francona was the first to go, followed by the one time Theo Epstein, the man that receives the credit for ending the infamous "curse of the bambino". Upon Francona's release, rumors swirled that he would be next in line to take over for the bottom of the barrel Cubs. After those rumors quickly flamed out, rumors of Epstein sprang up like wildfire. Fortunately for the Cubs, though, these rumors are quickly coming to fruition. Boston's former ghost buster is making his way to the North Side, but as was expected, the Red Sox refuse to make life easy for the hapless Cubs.

October 13 marked the official split between Theo and the Sox. With the crowning of former assistant general manager Ben Cherrington as gm of the club, and the Cubs coming to terms with Epstein on a 5 year, $20 million deal, a small cash agreement should have been all that was left for Epstein to be named Chicago's new savior. Sox owner John Henry, though, likes to play hardball, something that he assumed  amateur owner Tom Ricketts would know little to nothing about. Tom is calling Henry's bluffs like an aged veteran.

Jim Hendry, former gm of the Cubs, was never a highly rated manager. He had a reputation for overpaying, and being overaggressive. HIs farm systems never rated particularly well among the Baseball America experts, though dedicated Cub fans can acknowledge that he took part in drafting some rare gems. Many of those gems remain in the coal mines of the Cubs system still to this day, though Hendry was fired in August of this past season. Players that would not seem appealing to other clubs, such as speed demon Zeke Devoss, will hopefully make the leap to the majors one day. In order for that to happen, though, the Cubs have to hold firm and resist the bullish offers of the Red Sox.

Reports have surfaced that Matt Garza is the prize that the Sox had been hoping for, though Ricketts shot down the request instantly. To be fair, Henry knew full well that he was not going to get the Cubs ace. His goal was to see the reaction that he could get from Ricketts. Upon seeing that reaction, Henry decided to move on to the much heralded Brett Jackson. The 5 tool outfielder ranks 45th in Baseball America's overall prospect rankings, but his upside and probability of success makes him "untouchable", as was stated by Ricketts. The most recent rumors have involved soon to be Cubs number 2 starter Andrew Cashner or Trey McNutt heading to New England. Cubs fan can rest assured that Cashner is another player highly unlikely to move. McNutt has been the only debatable move.

Trey McNutt, 23, was drafted by the Cubs in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft. McNutt shredded minor league hitters in his first season in the Cubs system, posting a 2.48 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 116 innings. What projected as a superb 2011 for McNutt did not come to pass, as he was derailed by a finger blister and rib injuries. Inconsistency, as well as only 65 strikeouts in 95 innings came as cause for concern for the Cubs prospect. The Cubs are going to write off McNutt's rough season as a fluke due to injuries, but it appears that Red Sox hierarchy are going to manipulate it as much as they can. After all, trading a top gm for a low potential minor league kid seems like Boston is on the short end of the stick. The Cubs cannot, and hopefully will not, cave under the pressure of Henry and the Sox.

When the Cubs traded for Garza in the winter of 2010-2011, they gave up quite a bit of future potential. Top infield prospect Hak Ju Lee, Position Player of the Year Brandon Guyer, top catching prospect Robinson Chirinos, and future ace Chris Archer headed to the warm Tampa weather, while the Cubs finally added an ace to their staff.

Geovany Soto, Wellington Castillo, and Steve Clevenger can hold up behind the plate for the next few years, with the latter two eventually taking over. The Cubs have plenty of outfield prospects, such as Jackson, Matt Szczur, and Reggie Golden, that made Guyer somewhat expendable. Even high ranking shortstop Lee became expendable with the arrival of Starlin Castro, the new face of the Cubs. That leaves Chris Archer, the one player that the Cubs couldn't, but had to, give up.

The Cubs acquired Archer in 2008, in a trade that also involved fan favorite Mark DeRosa. Archer was not a key component of the deal, though he had an "on the radar" arm and an unlimited ceiling. As his confidence and talent grew, Archer climbed further and further up through the Cubs ranks. A dominant 2010 placed Archer as the top player in the Cubs system. Over his two year stretch as a Cub, every facet of his game improved. An average fastball now tops out at 97mph, an average breaking ball has turned into a legitimate slider, and his control is on the way up, though it has been questionable at times. The Cubs bought low and sold high with Archer, and it paid off with the acquisition of Garza. Now, with one future anchor left in McNutt, the Cubs cannot afford to let him slip away.

If the Red Sox are hoping to acquire a position player, Ricketts and the Cubs will fight them hard, but have some room to give up ground. When it comes to giving up a pitcher, don't expect the Cubs to give away the farm like they did for Garza. Unless, of course, the Sox have interest in the revitalized Rodrigo Lopez

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