Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Predictions for the NL East


Miami Marlins: Jeff Loria and the Marlins have had an exceedingly controversial offseason, trading away nearly every piece of large talent on the roster. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonafacio, and Josh Johnson were among those sent packing in a deal with Toronto. This blockbuster move was made not long after all star shortstop Hanley Ramirez was shipped off to Los Angeles, and Anibal Sanchez was informed that he would not be returning. Still, Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrisson reside in South Beach, and the Marlins received quite a bit of talent from the Blue Jays (Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria and Justin Nicolino). The Marlins may have built a promising future, though I would expect this season to be similar to the newly built Marlins Park; damn ugly. The beauty of baseball, though, is that a terrible record equates to a high draft pick. The Marlins should finish among the bottom five teams in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies won 81 games last year, largely due to injuries. Roy Halladay only started 25 games, Chase Utley played in 83, and Ryan Howard only played 71. While many expected heralded prospect Domonic Brown to finally breakout, he hit .235 in 56 games. It looked as if Brown would be on the move during the offseason, though negotiations with the Cubs fell apart. Add a poor farm system (ranked 27th by Keith Law) to a team full of players on the wrong side of 30, and the Phillies window may have shut. Add that to the fact that closer Jonathan Papelbon was recently quoted as saying that the team has no leadership, and a whole new problem is created. Veteran shortstop Michael Young was added to the roster over the offseason, but he won't be able to make up for the obvious flaws in the Phillies system. The City of Brotherly Love won't have much to cheer about this season. Mediocrity kills in sports, and that is right about where the Phillies will be; not good enough to win the division, but nowhere near as bad as the Marlins.

New York Mets: New York's other team won 74 games last year, 20 of which came at the hands of RA. Dickey. Dickey was traded to Toronto in exchange for top prospect Travis D'Arnaud and catcher John Buck, and it will be interesting to see where wins will come from now. The argument can be made that the exchange for Toronto was a fantastic one for the Mets, as they picked up a young catcher that is a phenomenal hitter, and Dickey is 38. Shaun Marcum was a solid offseason addition, and projects to be towards the top (if not the top) of the rotation this year. David Wright was signed to an eight year, $138 million contract, and is a solid cornerstone at third base. Assuming that D'Arnaud starts the season behind the plate in New York, and top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler lives up to the hype, the Mets could be a dark horse candidate in the East, though a wildcard is more likely.

Atlanta Braves: After some questionable moves during the regular season, the Braves likely had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Having signed Bossman Junior (B.J) Upton, and trading for his brother Justin, the braves have an outfield that is potentially disastrous for opposing pitching. Combining the Uptons with Jason Heyward should be extremely productive. To acquire Justin Upton from Arizona, though, the Braves had to give up Martin Prado, who appeared to be the future of the Braves infield from a leadership perspective. If someone else can step into that leadership role, the trade makes the Braves better off. Pitching is certainly going to be interesting in Atlanta this year. With Craig Kimrel, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Jonny Venters on the staff, the Braves are very well off. Julio Teheran can be the pitcher that puts them over the top, though. Teheran had been ranked as the top prospect in baseball, but dropped off considerably after a rough 2012. His control, which was shaky in 2012, reportedly returned in the Dominican Winter League, and he will get another chance in Turner Field in 2013. The Braves should have no problem making the playoffs, and while nothing is guaranteed, are very likely to be part of a two-team race to win the East.

Washington Nationals: Davey Johnson and Co. won 98 games last year, which was somewhat surprising considering their youth. The 19 year old Bryce Harper hit .270 with 22 home runs, and young ace Stephen Strasburg won 15 games with a 3.16 ERA. These two, along with a solid core of veterans such as Michael Morse, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, helped the Nationals dominate National League teams last year. Building on that success was a solid offseason, which included signing outfielder Denard Span, closer Rafael Soriano and starting pitcher Dan Haren. Though Morse departed for Seattle, and Edwin Jackson is now in Chicago, the Nationals acquired enough talent to overcome those losses. Had they not been able to resign Adam Laroche, it may have been a different story. Mike Rizzo was able to get the deal done, though, after what seemed like a war of attrition between the two parties. Like Atlanta, expect Washington to handle the East with relative ease. They should claim a wildcard spot if they are incapable of topping the Braves and winning the division.

*All statistics courtesy of Baseballreference.com

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