More-so than any other player entry draft in professional sports, the MLB Draft is a complete guessing game. Teams invest large sums of money into high school and college athletes that, more often than not, will never see time at the big league level. 1200 players will have their draft rights purchased by major league teams, and only a minuscule fraction will make a name for themselves in baseball.
First round draft selections make or break a team. Scouts and general managers are often fired because of mistakes they have made in the first round, such as choosing Lou Montanez instead of Adam Wainwright (2000), or electing to draft Mark Pawelek instead of Jacoby Ellsbury (2005). There is a valid argument that baseball is not a one player game, and a team is not made or broken based on one bad pick. Consistently making draft day mistakes, though, gives a team little chance of being competitive. Even if that team has ample amounts of money compared to the rest of baseball.
In 1995, the Chicago Cubs selected Kerry Wood with the fourth overall pick in the draft. Wood had a career filled with injuries, and was never able to live up to his full potential. Still though, Wood cannot and will not ever be considered a bust of a pick. Unfortunately for the Cubs, not a single draft pick since Wood has come close to meeting expectations. Similar to Kerry Wood, Mark Prior showed signs of brilliance before ultimately being decimated by injuries. Cubs scouts have invested piles of money into picks such as as Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, and Mark Pawelek, just to name a few. These picks were all made under the Jim Hendry regime, and every one of them a colossal failure. With Hendry out and Theo Epstein in, the Cubs' organization is hoping for sustained success and a world series ring for the first time in more than 100 years.
Like most of Epstein's early moves as the Cubs new president and general manager, the Cubs' first round selection in 2012's draft forces fans to raise an eyebrow in skepticism. With the sixth overall pick in this year's draft, Epstein elected to take center fielder Alberto Almora. Similar to current Cubs' minor leaguer Brett Jackson, Almora appears to be a five tool player with a bright future. The question fans are asking, though, is why the team didn't jump at the opportunity to select Stanford ace Mark Appel. The Cubs are desperate for pitching, and Appel was believed to be destined for Houston with the first overall pick. Appel eventually dropped all the way to Pittsburgh in the eighth spot.
Considered underrated by some (mainly Cubs fans), the Cubs farm system is considered to be middle of the pack. There are some talented hitters, some position players that could be future gems, and very little pitching that is even worth mentioning. Jackson, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez highlight a future for the Cubs that has some serious offensive potential. Yet with so little pitching potential, the consensus belief was that Epstein would spend high on a starting pitcher. So why did Epstein and the Cubs pass on Appel, the golden boy of the 2012 draft?
Some consider Scott Boras and his corporation to be the most greedy people in all of baseball, and some just consider them to be an expert at their craft. Either opinion is justifiable, and neither is wrong. Boras may have cost his new client quite a bit of money, though. Sources within baseball have reported that Appel, presumed to go first overall, is demanding more money than teams are willing to pay. Boras clients have a history of demanding overwhelming amounts of money, though this is an especially bad move for a rookie that has yet to prove anything.
Appel had only one year at Stanford with a sub-three ERA, and that was his senior season. It is possible that teams saw him as a one year wonder, and didn't think he was worth the risk. Most available scouting reports describe him as having several plus pitches and little to no durability concerns, meaning that money was the likely reason that seven teams passed on his services. Along with the other six general managers that took flyers on other players, Epstein will have to live with his decision and hope that it was the right one.
The man that Epstein passed up on Appel for will come into an interesting situation on the north side. Jackson has been the future center fielder since Hendry and the Cubs spent a first round pick on him on 2009. Like Jackson, Almora knows only one position, and he also projects to be an eventual starter in center field. Fans are already asking if the Almora pick makes Jackson trade bait, as the team could reel in some pitching help for the young center fielder. The ideal situation would be to shift either Jackson or Almora to a corner spot, though Jackson has been struggling of late, and Almora does not appear physically capable of commanding a spot other than center at the major league level.
Almora is considered to be a very high ceiling player, with a skill set that is among the most advanced in the 2012 draft class. Scouts see him as an above average contact hitter with 20-30 home run potential bat, base stealing ability, and a cannon for an arm. Interestingly enough, Jackson is projected to be very similar. Scouts see him as a 20-20 player (home runs-steals) and an above average defensive player.
It is an unwritten rule in sports that a team should never draft a player based strictly on need. Epstein seems to have obeyed that rule, though it could have interesting implications for the future of the Chicago Cubs organization.
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