The offseason following the 2011 season has been the most spectacular in recent memory. Iconic sluggers Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have completely changed scenery, signing lucrative deals in the American League. The game's top hitting shortstop, Jose Reyes, has taken his talents to South Beach for what is being considered the largest boom or bust team in baseball. 2011 MVP Ryan Braun has been busted for using steroids, and Miguel Cabrera has dropped 25 pounds for a 2012 transition to third base. All of these superstars will be effected by this offseason. The question, though, is how much will they be effected
If the top hitters are negatively effected, it only makes sense to conclude that pitching will be on the rise. Justin Verlander, last years Al Cy Young and MVP winner, is as safe a pick as can possibly be made. The Tigers likely added major run support with the signing of Prince Fielder. With other teams in the AL Central either dumping salary or staying put in their mediocre states, Verlander should have smooth sailing, and possibly repeat as the AL Cy Young winner in his 2012 campaign.
Under the radar to begin 2012 is Cleveland Indians ace Ubaldo Jiminez. 2010 showed that when healthy, he is an absolute stud. He doesn't compare to Verlander in Detroit, but Jiminez is far and away the second best pitcher in the AL Central. After Jiminez, the Indians do not have ample pitching depth. Sinkerballer Justin Masterson is the next best pitcher in Cleveland, but he won't amount to more than an average pitcher with average numbers.
As top heavy as the AL Central is in terms of hitting, the NL Central might be the only division that is weaker. Once you look away from Joey Votto and the Reds, the rest of the Central is dotted with past their prime hitters that are in no way certain contributors for 2012. Aramis Ramirez made the 90 mile drive from Chicago to Milwaukee, though expecting a 2012 similar to last season might be a stretch. Ryan Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season because of his steroid use. Albert Pujols left Saint Louis for Anaheim, and Lance Berkman has added another year on. With the exception of Starlin Castro, the Cubs have basically nothing to offer offensively. Yet what the Central lacks in hitting, it makes up for in pitching.
Every team in the Central has at least one pitcher capable of domination a lineup every time he goes to the mound. The most likely pitcher to light up the division this year is very debatable. ESPN believes Zack Greinke is the most likely, but I tend to believe that the pitcher with the best stats come the end of September will be the one who had the most run support. That will be either the Brewers, Reds, or possibly the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals want to be in that mix, Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and Matt Holiday will need above average years, as well as young players like David Freese coming through. The Brewers will be without Braun for 50 games, and success after his return isn't guaranteed. Still, with players such as Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, the Brewers might be able to put something together offensively. Whatever they do put together will likely not take the world by storm, but it should be competitive. The most talented team offensively should be the Reds. Jay Bruce, Votto, and Brandon Phillips are consistent and explosive. Cincinnati pitchers will have the best run support in the Central, and possibly in the entire National League.
The Reds do not have a bonafide ace in their starting rotation. Recently, they acquired San Diego Padres pitcher Mat Latos in exchange for a number of high level prospects. Latos posted a 3.47 ERA with nine wins for the Padres. The nine wins came with very little run support, so he should expect a considerably better win total this season. Barring injury, Latos should really turn heads in 2012. Other candidates for the top NL Central pitcher are Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter is getting long in the tooth, and Wainwright spent all of 2011 on the disabled list. If Greinke can stay healthy this season, it's a toss up as to the best pitcher in Milwaukee. ESPN sees Greinke having a better statistical season than Gallardo in every category other than wins.
Best 2012 AL Central Pitcher: Justin Verlander
Best 2012 NL Central Pitcher: Mat Latos
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